<strong>Vier Gefahren – und ihre Kaskadeneffekte</strong>

Der Score integriert die zentralen Gefahren, die Waldverluste in Europa verursachen – und berücksichtigt, wie sie sich gegenseitig verstärken: Sturmschäden begünstigen Borkenkäferausbrüche, Dürre schwächt Waldbestände, und durch Borkenkäfer abgestorbenes Holz erhöht das Waldbrandrisiko.

<strong>Auf Basis von Copernicus-Satellitendaten und Klimareanalysedaten</strong>

Die Studie nutzt Copernicus Sentinel-1 (Radar, wolkenunabhängig) zur Erkennung von Windwurf, Sentinel-2 zur Erfassung des Vegetationszustands und von Borkenkäferindikatoren sowie ERA5-Klimareanalysedaten für Temperatur, Bodenfeuchte und Windfelder.

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ForInS

A Multi-Hazard Forest Score for insurance and natural-capital investors

Research initiative | ESA Kickstart feasibility study | 2026/27

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Simplified illustrative concept: A schematic of how a single forest stand’s ForInS score could be presented. Scores and values are placeholders for design purposes only; no real data is shown and the research has not yet been carried out.

Co-funded by the European Space Agency

This project is carried out under a programme of, and co-funded by, the European Space Agency (ESA). The views expressed on this website can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Space Agency.
The views expressed on this website can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Space Agency.

Multi-hazard

One score, four hazards

Windthrow, bark beetle, drought and wildfire, including the cascade between them, expressed as a single, comparable metric.

Hectare-precise

Stand-level resolution

Satellite-derived, geo-referenced output designed to slot into underwriting and portfolio workflows across Europe.

Insurance-grade

Built on NatCat methods

Methodology grounded in (re)insurance natural-catastrophe analytics and peer-reviewed Earth-observation science.

Why a forest score is needed

~€15 bn

German forest damage, 2018–2021 (DFWR)

< 5 %

Insurance penetration, private forest (DE)

€5–15 k

Cost of a single local forest survey

The feasibility study

Within a DACH pilot region, we test whether a satellite-based score is operationally viable for insurers, and how the market potential should be classified.

Backtest of the windthrow score against documented storm-loss events Proof of concept for bark-beetle exposure from vegetation & climate data Structured interviews with underwriters and NatCat analysts Cost comparison: satellite scoring vs. traditional field surveys
Machbarkeitsnachweis für die Borkenkäfer-Exposition auf Basis von Vegetations- und Klimadaten
Strukturierte Interviews mit Underwritern und NatCat-Analysten
Kostenvergleich: satellitengestütztes Scoring vs. traditionelle Vor-Ort-Erhebungen

The score integrates the hazards that drive European forest loss — and the way they compound: storm damage triggers beetle outbreaks; drought weakens stands; beetle-killed timber raises wildfire risk.

The study draws on Copernicus Sentinel-1 (radar, cloud-independent) for windthrow detection, Sentinel-2 for vegetation status and bark-beetle indicators, and ERA5 climate reanalysis for temperature, soil moisture and wind fields.

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For reinsurers, specialty insurers, brokers with forest exposure, and asset managers or timberland funds. Gain early insight into a potential pricing and exposure tool, benchmark a real score example against your own loss experience, and shape data format and integration.

Talk to our team about ForInS
A brief, non-binding technical exchange — by phone or video — is the best first step

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